Home Agenda Jobs report set to boost or hamper Biden’s agenda

Jobs report set to boost or hamper Biden’s agenda


President BidenJoe BidenHouse to Vote on Own Infrastructure Plan Trump Brings a Show to the Border Night Health Care: CDC Director Says People Vaccinated Are “Safe” And Don’t Need To Wear masks | Federal Judge Temporarily Blocks Indiana Abortion “Reversal” Law | Fauci warns of ‘two Americas’ over widening vaccination gap is looking for fireworks in the June jobs report due out Friday as the White House gives new impetus to its economic agenda ahead of the July 4 long weekend.

A strong jobs report could bolster the White House’s efforts to prove Biden’s economic agenda is working as the administration faces pressure during months of poor job gains and rising prices. Despite this, economists say the United States has yet to declare independence from the weight of COVID-19 in the labor market.

Economists expect the United States to create around 700,000 jobs in June, up from 559,000 the month before, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage point to 5.7%. Analysts say a wide array of private sector data measuring payrolls, travel and mobile shopping has shown consumer activity to new pandemic highs – all positive signs for the job market.

“There have been some really striking improvements, and many high frequency indicators of economic activity point to increased employer demand for workers,” said Julia Pollak, labor economist at ZipRecruiter. .

Faster job growth would give Biden and senior administration officials a boost as they try to rally public support for billions of dollars in proposed infrastructure spending. A June hit report could also weaken some GOP criticism of Biden pushing for increased government spending after two straight months of jobs data that missed the target in terms of Wall Street expectations. .

“The June jobs report is a ‘watershed or watershed’ moment for the Biden administration,” Republican lawmakers on the House Ways and Means Committee said in a statement Thursday.

“After two consecutive months of disappointing employment reports, a third monthly disappointment would reveal more of President Biden’s broken promises.”

The United States has created an average of 540,000 jobs each month since March, well below the seven-figure monthly job gains some economists are predicting by the summer. At the same time, job openings and departures have reached record levels as millions of the unemployed hold back from taking the first jobs and the lowest wages available.

The White House could be hungry for good news ahead of the holiday weekend. But economists warn that the economy has yet to be able to shake the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We have never had a labor market so limited not only by public health, but also by an individual’s perception of his health risk. And we’ve never had such a limited care labor market, ”said Kathryn Anne Edwards, economist at RAND Corporation.

“I hesitate to say that we are past the point where the pandemic limits the labor market, simply because it could be exceeded for richer … whiter communities, but certainly not for communities that still have low rates. vaccination. “

Republicans and some right-wing economists argue that Biden’s March extension of expanded unemployment benefits is the biggest drag on job growth. More than two dozen governors, almost all Republicans, have endorsed this argument and removed millions of their residents from these programs.

Survey results released on Tuesday by employment site Indeed highlighted a much wider range of reasons hiring fell short of expectations despite 9 million job postings .

“Most people have multiple issues entering the workforce, so we have no way of discerning which is the determining factor,” Edwards said. “I don’t really see unemployment benefits being the cause. It’s probably more of a catalyst for another cause.

Among job seekers interviewed by Indeed who said they were not urgently looking for a job, more than 40% said it was because of COVID-19 concerns or their responsibilities. child care.

About 20 percent said it was because their spouse had a job, and slightly fewer said they had enough financial cushion. Only 10 percent said their lack of urgency was due to unemployment insurance.

The sharp decline in women’s participation in the workforce – and the disproportionate toll of black and Hispanic women – is where many of these factors come together. Women have dropped out of the workforce at a much higher rate than men because they were working in greater numbers in industries hardest hit by the pandemic and taking on childcare responsibilities when the stores closed. schools.

“I am deeply concerned about the more than 2 million women who have left the group. We desperately need it, ”said Jane Oates, an official with the Obama administration’s Department of Labor, who is now president of the non-profit WorkingNation.

“I don’t mind if the unemployment rate increases if the labor force participation rate increases, because we need more people who are actively looking to fill these jobs. “

Economists are largely convinced that the US economy will be freed from most of the constraints of the pandemic by the fall, with significant job growth to follow. Several experts have also said that delays in hiring could have benefits for the economy if workers add new skills or strive for jobs that match their expertise.

“The purpose of unemployment benefits is to give you a cushion so that you can try to find the best job,” Edwards said.

“It is a net loss for the economy to lose this human capital and this experience. “


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